No ‘above-normal’ hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin expected – Hansen

Hurricane season 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

No ‘above-normal’ hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin expected

Climate scientists say Atlantic hurricane season – which impacts the US and Europe – is highly predictable, and such severe events are not likely to become more frequent or more intense in the future.

The coming season (May through to November) is not expected to have an above-normal number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, according to the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).

The global hurricane forecast is showing consistent agreement across the ocean basins.

Although there is more variability in the western Pacific, the general area of agreement on projected hurricane activity has remained relatively stable since early 2017.

Three factors explain the continued agreement across the four basin areas, says the RMS.

They are the strong observational, weather and climate infrastructure and data coverage that are well established now; the large areas of open water in the tropical Atlantic that make year-round hurricane activity possible; and the importance of seasonal hurricane season forecasts in improving the public’s understanding of the current conditions.

“Our best estimate is that there will be a few more seasonal hurricanes in the Atlantic and subtropical Pacific this year,” says Rasmus Miltner, senior climatologist at the RMS.

“They should be at the low end of the normal range, which is a continuation of what we saw in 2018, but it is likely that this will be the last year with an above-normal number of hurricanes.”

Click to read more from climate change briefing

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